“The military is worried” about freezing defense spending.
PARIS — The collapse of the French government is undermining the country’s defense plans as the military budget won’t increase until the political crisis is resolved.
On Wednesday, the Council of Ministers adopted a so-called special law that allows France to continue the 2024 budget into 2025 — a tool designed to avoid a U.S.-style government shutdown. The text will go through parliament but lawmakers cannot amend it.
That means a €3.3 billion defense spending boost that was part of a seven-year military planning law is off the cards for now. It also imposes a freeze of sorts on the armed forces ministry, which will not be able to hire new people or launch new programs until a proper 2025 budget is approved by parliament.
“The military is worried, and that’s normal, everyone is in a bit of a wait-and-see mode,” Hélène Conway-Mouret, a Socialist senator who co-drafted a report on France’s 2025 defense budget, told POLITICO.
“We need to make sure the political consensus that emerged in 2024 to increase defense spending continues,” she said, adding that “even with the €3.3 billion boost, the seven-year military planning law is not ambitious enough.”
France will reach NATO’s target of spending 2 percent of GDP on defense this year, but the budget was slated to continue rising as the country looks to modernize its arsenal to deal with rising global tensions.
French Armed Forces Minister Sébastien Lecornu warned earlier this month that not having a proper defense budget could postpone an order for a next-generation aircraft carrier and freeze 700 hires, including in critical areas such as cyber and AI.
Other military purchases expected next year include a frigate, mine-sweepers, the upgrade of 120 light armored vehicles, and loads of missiles.
In the corridors of the armed forces ministry, officials concede that delays are to be expected until parliament agrees to the €3.3 billion increase.
Investment in conventional weaponry will likely bear the brunt of any cutbacks because French decision-makers “will not sacrifice nuclear deterrence,” said an industry official, speaking on condition of anonymity to talk more freely.
There is little expectation of a new budget before February at the earliest, several French officials, military officers and lawmakers said.
“The question is: How long will it last?” the industry official said. “The longer this goes on, the more serious the consequences are going to be, we have a somewhat fragile defense industrial base.”
The official added that the budget problems could undermine relations with defense contractors. “If the state encourages manufacturers to produce by telling them, ‘Don’t worry, we’ll place orders,’ and is then unable to actually place them, that’s going to pose a problem.”
President Emmanuel Macron said he would appoint a new prime minister this week — but the National Assembly remains deeply divided and it’s unclear when the political crisis will be resolved.
“We’re like everyone else,” a high-ranking military official said. “We’re waiting.”
Paul de Villepin contributed reporting.
