The first major survey of voters after frontrunner Friedrich Merz’s controversial alignment with the far right suggests the gambit failed.
BERLIN — Early signs suggest Germany’s conservatives may have lost their big bet.
Chancellor candidate Friedrich Merz’s high-stakes gamble to align with the far right on tough immigration measures appears to have dealt a swift blow to his center-right alliance, with a key poll showing his conservatives sliding by two points from last week ― to 28 percent.
The German pollster Forsa, which released its most recent survey on Tuesday, marks the first snapshot of voter sentiment since Merz’s controversial maneuver last week to attempt to push through a series of tough immigration measures with the help of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, weakening Germany’s quarantine of the far right, in place since the end of World War II.
Merz had wagered that, in the wake of a series of high-profile attacks blamed on immigrants, the taboo-breaking move would benefit his conservatives by convincing outraged voters that he and his party are serious about their vows to drastically reduce the inflow of asylum seekers into Germany.
Ahead of a federal election set for Feb. 23, it remains unclear which parties may most benefit from the conservatives’ weakness. The Forsa poll shows the Greens gaining one point with 15 percent, while the AfD remains steady at 20 percent.
Merz’s gambit sparked outrage among leaders of center-left parties, with one high-ranking parliamentarian for the Social Democratic Party (SPD) accusing him of opening “the gates of hell.” Over the weekend, tens of thousands of demonstrators turned out in cities across Germany to protest Merz’s weakening of the so-called “firewall” against the far right.
Behind the scenes, many German conservatives have expressed nervousness about Merz’s tactics, and have eagerly awaited polls in order to gauge voter reaction. The conservative slump may now fuel open debate in the party over Merz’s course.
Last week, an intervention by Angela Merkel revealed a longstanding conservative schism, with the former conservative chancellor calling Merz’s acceptance of AfD support “wrong.” In a further sign of that division, 12 conservative parliamentarians on Friday didn’t vote for the immigration bill Merz sought to pass with AfD support, leading to its failure.
