With Donald Trump pushing a Russia-friendly peace, EU trade roadblocks are leaving Ukraine with little choice but to hit back.
BRUSSELS — Ukraine is sending a clear message to the EU: If you won’t sort out our trade relationship, there will be consequences.
Deputy Economy Minister Taras Kachka has signaled frustration with the slow pace of talks on extending Ukraine’s duty-free access to the EU market, which expires in June. And while Kyiv is eager to negotiate, he suggested that Ukraine is also ready to retaliate if certain countries continue to obstruct talks — in an apparent nod to Poland, Slovakia and Hungary, which have defied EU law by maintaining national bans on Ukrainian goods.
“The lack of progress on revising the trade agreement will force us to take steps to equalize the trade balance. And unfortunately, those decisions will be the least pleasant for the countries that are now politically slowing down the negotiations on free trade,” Kachka said at an event on Thursday organized by the Centre for Economic Strategy.
Speaking to POLITICO on Friday, Kachka struck a more conciliatory tone, stressing that Kyiv remains committed to a cooperative solution.
“We work only on a positive agenda with the EU. And I hope we will integrate Ukraine into the EU internal market ASAP,” he said.
He pointed out that Ukraine buys more from the EU than it sells: Kyiv imported $35.7 billion in goods from the bloc last year, leaving a trade surplus of more than $10 billion in the EU’s favor. That means any trade fight could risk hurting European businesses more than Ukraine’s.
“It is in the common interest of the EU and Ukraine to find a solution. In a time of global trade turbulence, we need to concentrate only on how to improve trade,” he added.
Lifeline for Ukraine’s economy
Since Russia’s full-scale invasion, duty-free trade with the EU has kept open an economic lifeline for Ukraine, allowing its exports — particularly agricultural and industrial goods — to keep flowing despite the destruction of infrastructure and the war’s economic toll. The EU is Ukraine’s biggest trading partner, accounting for nearly 60 percent of its exports.
Now, however, that duty-free access is set to expire in June, and the European Commission has yet to clarify what comes next.
The timing is critical: U.S. President Donald Trump pushing for a peace deal that could force Ukraine to cede territory to Russia; Kyiv is increasingly dependent on Europe to keep its economy afloat.
The most likely outcome is an update to the 2016 free-trade agreement, rather than another temporary extension, which is being opposed by large EU countries like France and Poland.
For Ukraine, simply reverting to pre-war trade conditions isn’t an option. The country’s export landscape has dramatically changed, and officials argue that the EU must adjust to new realities.
Kachka dismissed concerns from countries like Poland and Hungary as politically motivated rather than economic.
Overall, Europe benefits more from trade with Ukraine than the other way around, with European exporters selling far more to Ukraine than they import from it.
If Ukrainian producers suddenly face new trade barriers, Kyiv is making clear it has options to respond. Kachka did not spell out what countermeasures Ukraine could take, but it could mean restrictions on EU goods flowing into Ukraine, hitting European industries that rely on Ukrainian buyers — something that would be felt far beyond the farm sector.
The next major moment for talks is the EU-Ukraine Association Council meeting on April 9, where both sides could hammer out a new trade arrangement.
But Kachka stopped short of promising a breakthrough, saying Ukraine is waiting for the EU’s position and that the next move is up to the Commission.
Camille Gijs contributed reporting.
