Tuesday’s election is set to be one of the most consequential in the island’s history.
Greenlanders will trudge across ice and snow Tuesday to cast their ballots in an election that could prove to be one of the most consequential in the Arctic island’s history.
Amid United States President Donald Trump’s repeated threats to take over Greenland, voters in the self-ruling Danish territory will elect 31 members of its legislature, the Inatsisartut, as they do every four years.
This time around, the stakes are existential: nothing less than Greenland’s place in the world — including whether it should remain part of Denmark, seek independence, or forge closer ties with major powers like the U.S. and Europe.
“The politicians have not been very clear about what independence really is,” Masaana Egede, the editor-in-chief of the Greenlandic daily Sermitsiaq,told a video briefing with international journalists last week, responding to a question by POLITICO.
“Is it economic independence? A feeling of independence? Having our own borders?” Egede said. “We’re talking this much about it because it stirs emotions in us. We want independence, but we all have very different definitions of what independence is,” he said.
Egede — who is the half-brother of Prime Minister Múte Egede — said there are 32 areas where Denmark still makes decisions on Greenland’s behalf. “Say we’d take over one per year, it would still take us 32 years to become really independent,” he said.
Currently, the party with the most seats in the Inatsisartut is Inuit Ataqatigiit, or “Community of the People,” together with its coalition partner Siumut, or “Forward.” Both parties are pro-independence and have vowed to call a referendum on the island’s separation from Denmark, without specifying when that vote will be.
Under a 2009 agreement with Denmark, Greenland can legally declare independence — but only after a referendum has taken place. While there is widespread support for full sovereignty in Greenland, some are unsure what it would mean for the island’s defense and economy if it were to strike out on its own.
‘One way or the other’
Greenland’s 2-million-plus square kilometers are replete with vast, untapped natural resources, including highly coveted rare earths; yet it has a population of less than 60,000.
It makes Greenland vulnerable to security threats — and not just from Trump, who has called acquiring the island an “absolute necessity,” refused to rule out using military force or economic coercion to do so, and last week said the U.S. will get it “one way or the other.” Trump cited threats from China and Russia, who are both increasingly fixated on the Arctic.
Mindful of the intense interest of those major powers in its fate — and perhaps remembering a highly publicized trip to the capital Nuuk by Trump’s eldest son Donald Trump Jr., during which he passed out MAGA hats and reportedly enticed homeless people to attend a free lunch — Greenland tightened foreign interference laws last month, banning foreign and anonymous political donations.
Independence would also mean a massive hole in the island’s budget without the annual $500 million subsidy provided by Denmark, which pays for Greenland’s Scandinavian-style welfare system. The EU also sends funding to Greenland, though the island is not a member of the bloc.
Yet anti-colonial sentiment runs strong, with Prime Minister Egede, the leader of Inuit Ataqatigiit, using his New Year’s address to declare that it is “time to take the next step for our country” and for Greenlanders to break free from “the shackles of the colonial era.”
Greenland’s lawmakers have opposed EU-backed mining projects because deposits of rare earths sit within uranium resources. The debate about whether mining could pave the way to independence by diversifying the economy dominated Greenland’s last election in 2021 and propelled Inuit Ataqatigiit to victory after the party supported a uranium mining ban. The outcome: rare earth projects are now also halted.
But the issue of uranium mining hasn’t been a major topic during this election campaign. Neither have the questions of whether to boost tourism or shipping, despite the fact they could also help fund an independent Greenland. “The independence question has taken so much space,” said Sermitsiaq editor-in-chief Egede, it has displaced debate about Greenland’s economy, which would normally “be a very, very big part of an election.”
While Trump promised to make the Arctic island “rich” during his presidential address last Tuesday, a massive majority of Greenlanders — about 85 percent — oppose the idea of becoming part of the U.S., according to a January poll.
Whatever Greenlanders choose on Tuesday, the outcome is sure to send ripples far beyond their own icy shores.
Jakob Weizman contributed reporting.
