In a remarkable volte-face, the U.S. is making clear it now regards Russia as the “impediment” to peace if it rejects a ceasefire.
Vladimir Putin suddenly finds himself with the same problem as Volodymyr Zelenskyy: How is he going to say nyet to Donald Trump without incurring the wrath of the highly unpredictable and impetuous United States president?
Ukraine’s readiness to agree an immediate 30-day ceasefire, after talks with the U.S. in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday, shifts the onus squarely onto Putin to do the same.
Trump prides himself on his ability to strike deals, and he exploded on Zelenskyy when he saw him as an obstacle to a settlement; the billionaire tycoon cut military aid to Kyiv and fumed that Ukrainians did not want peace.
Now, after the Saudi Arabia talks, it’s the Russians’ turn to squirm. Trump’s Secretary of State Marco Rubio made clear that “the ball is in [Russia’s] court” and noted that if Moscow doesn’t sign up to the ceasefire “then we’ll unfortunately know what the impediment is to peace here.”
Having resumed American military aid to Kyiv on Tuesday, Trump also spelled out to the Kremlin what would happen if it ignored the ceasefire, saying: “We just keep going on,” and warning that “lots of people” will be killed.
Missiles and cold shoulders
The first signals from Russia are not exactly encouraging.
Just hours after the ceasefire proposal, Russian forces launched an aerial attack on Zelenskyy’s hometown of Kryvyi Rih, killing a 47-year-old woman, the regional governor said. Russian strikes also hit Kyiv, Kharkiv and Odessa. Four people died when a missile hit a grain ship loading in Odessa.
Trump said he was aiming for a call with Putin, whom he has praised in recent weeks as a reliable partner who wants peace, but the Kremlin is circumspect. Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov says such a call could be organized at short notice “if such a need arises.”
On Wednesday morning, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova seemed to pour a draft of cold water on the idea of an interim truce, saying Moscow would make its own decisions about the war, and not follow the lead set by Washington and Kyiv in Saudi Arabia.
“The shaping of the position of the Russian Federation does not take place abroad due to some agreements or efforts of some parties,” the official TASS news agency quoted her as saying.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov also appeared to be holding out for some kind of bigger reset between Washington and the Kremlin. He said the West appeared to be showing the “first glimmers of awareness” that it needs to work with Russia, but sounded skeptical that an immediate deal was in the offing. “It is impossible to rely on the goodwill of current opponents who have declared the goal of inflicting a strategic defeat on Russia,” he said.
Lavrov is identifying a major problem for Putin: that a ceasefire may indeed look like a strategic defeat, making it hard for Moscow to sign up (even despite Russia’s track record in ignoring ceasefires and diplomatic agreements.)
In short, the Russians are still failing in their core strategic goals for which they have suffered losses of more than 170,000 men. Putin wanted a short war to oust Zelenskyy, take Kyiv, thwart Ukraine’s gravitation toward the European Union and NATO, and undermine it as a democracy.
Russian officials make no secret of the fact that the goal still remains to debilitate the Ukrainian state and are making maximalist demands from Kyiv. They want to claim even more Ukrainian territory, restrict Ukraine’s military capabilities and prevent foreign peacekeepers from serving there. Simply ending the fighting is not the invading army’s ultimate goal.
An influential Russian lawmaker also weighed in on Wednesday, warning that Russia was not done fighting and insisting that any ceasefire deal would only be on Moscow’s terms.
Konstantin Kosachev, chairman of the international affairs committee of the upper house of Russia’s parliament, noted in a post on Telegram that: “Russia is advancing.” He added: “Real agreements are still being written there, at the front. Which they should understand in Washington, too.”
No short truce
None of this initial reaction coming from Moscow should be surprising.
Putin indicated earlier this year that any temporary ceasefire deal was unacceptable, arguing it would only benefit a hard-pressed Kyiv and its Western allies.
“The goal should not be a short truce, not some kind of respite for regrouping forces and rearmament with the aim of subsequently continuing the conflict, but a long-term peace based on respect for the legitimate interests of all people, all nations living in this region,” Putin said in January.
Over the past few weeks, Russian officials have enjoyed the spectacle of Zelenskyy falling foul of Trump and the U.S. leader seemingly aligning with Moscow. In mid-February, Russian state media couldn’t help crowing over the country’s return to the top table of international politics when U.S. and Russian officials, led by each country’s foreign ministers, held talks in Saudi Arabia that lasted more than four hours.
That meeting was the first high-level, face-to-face contact between American and Russian delegations since Putin ordered the invasion of Ukraine three years ago. Moscow’s state-directed media and Kremlin officials saw it as a big win for the Russian president — a coming in from the cold.
And there was also gloating in Moscow when Trump paused military aid to Ukraine this month and cut off intelligence sharing after the bust-up in the Oval Office. There was evident delight at Washington’s sidelining of the Europeans in discussions about Ukraine’s future and at Zelenskyy being criticized by Trump in ferocious remarks about the Ukrainian leader in which he accused him of being “a dictator without elections.”
“The insolent pig finally got a proper slap,” a delighted Zakharova said.
It’s taken a strenuous effort by the Ukrainians and their European allies, who have been interceding on Kyiv’s behalf, to turn the tables.
This has required Zelenskyy to down a helping of humble pie, tone down his defiance, and back off from his insistence on prioritizing and agreeing security guarantees for a postwar Ukraine ahead of any ceasefire talks. He also left the face-to-face talks in Saudi Arabia this week to his powerful chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, rather than leading them himself.
Trumps needs to see Putin is the problem
Since November, when Trump secured his reelection, the Ukrainians, counseled by American friends and advisers, decided on a play-along strategy to avoid antagonizing the fickle Trump.
The idea was that they should leave it to Putin to cross and disappoint Trump, despite fearing that Putin might be able to exploit Trump’s desire for a deal at their cost. “Trump needs to conclude on his own that Putin isn’t willing to make any concessions — not to Ukraine but to him,” an American lobbyist working for the Ukrainians told POLITICO in January, asking not to be identified in order to speak freely. “This needs to be an iterative process and throughout, Ukraine needs to be the constructive party. Trump and his aides need to experience the Russians for themselves, then they will see.”
That strategy fell apart when Zelenskyy couldn’t restrain himself when goaded by Vice President JD Vance in the Oval Office. Now the strategy is back on track and Moscow will have to decide quickly how to play Trump.
It would seem improbable that Russia’s generals will want any letup right now. They have managed slow but consistent advances in the east in the Donetsk region and are a few miles from breaking through into the neighboring region of Dnipropetrovsk.
This weekend, they managed a significant breakthrough in the Kursk region, coming close to encircling around 10,000 elite Ukrainian troops who have been defending captured territory in Russia. Russian commanders have also been planning to increase their ballistic missile and drone assaults, according to Ukrainian military intelligence, who recently predicted Moscow now has the capacity to launch simultaneous attacks involving 500 drones.
It’s hardly easy, then, for Putin to tell his generals that it’s time for a ceasefire. But he has to worry about Trump’s reaction if he just ignores Washington and plows on with his war.
Russian newspaper Kommersant suggested Wednesday that the Kremlin’s response will only become clearer following a visit to Moscow by Steve Witkoff, Trump’s special envoy.
When that might happen is not clear. Russian media report he is expected in Russia shortly and ahead of a possible phone call between Trump and Putin Friday, but Kremlin spokesperson Peskov batted away reports of Witkoff’s imminent arrival.
Judging by Putin’s handling of previous diplomatic rounds with the Americans in recent years — over Syria and Ukraine — he’s likely to opt to string discussions out, raising different objections and offering a succession of confusing counter proposals.
Putin’s tone is often delivered in more of a sorrowful tone of crocodile tears than a confrontational one, but he has to tread with care. All Trump cares about is getting his deal, and he doesn’t like anyone stopping him.
