GREETINGS, this is Nick Vinocur, here to walk you through another fast-paced week. We’ll get to Ursula von der Leyen’s 100-day report card shortly, but first, an update from Romania, where Russia-aligned, far-right candidate Călin Georgescu has been banned from running in May’s presidential election.
Not eligible: Romania’s Central Electoral Bureau brushed off protestations from Donald Trump’s U.S. administration that the firebrand NATO-skeptic should be permitted to stand. “This is crazy!” Elon Musk posted on X. Carmen Paun has the full story.
VDL UNVEILS “SECURITY COLLEGE” AHEAD OF 100-DAY MARK: European commissioners will receive frequent security briefings, including intelligence reports, on various threats facing the bloc, Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said Sunday.
Times a-changin’: The all new “Security College” will meet “often,” though it will have no fixed schedule, and focus on a range of risks from cyber to hybrid attacks. “We need to switch to a preparedness mindset,” von der Leyen told a news conference Sunday to mark 100 days of her second presidency. “Only if we have a clear and in-depth understanding of the threats, including hybrid threats, can we effectively contribute to collective security.”
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Is this something we do? The new format — the only new announcement from Sunday’s hour-long press conference — may upset EU purists who see defense and security as purely national prerogatives.
Spooks in the building: But the reality is that the EU has been bolstering its intelligence capacities for years. In 2012, it launched the EU Intelligence and Situation Center, a “civilian intelligence” structure that answers to the External Action Service. The Commission also has its own security services nestled in the Directorate-General for Human Resources and Security. Ilkka Salmi, a former high-ranking Finnish security official and ex-European Council counterterrorism coordinator, took over as deputy director-general for security, workplace and wellbeing in the DG at the start of last month.
Stay tuned for top-secret leaks from the Berlaymont.
SO HOW IS VDL DOING? A hundred days into her second term, von der Leyen is grappling with a much harsher reality than she faced during her first five years in office. While vacuums in Paris and Berlin — and widespread desire for EU coordination — helped von der Leyen amass considerable power between 2019 and 2024, the world in 2025 is a much more Darwinian place.
Hard power is the name of the game. Those who have it, namely national leaders, are on the rise, with incoming German Chancellor Friedrich Merz already making huge waves. Those who don’t — EU officials without a substantial budget under their direct control — are finding it harder to get traction.
Hobbesian world: Compared to other EU officials, von der Leyen is just about keeping her head above water. While she is being snubbed by Donald Trump (an in-person meeting with the U.S. president would take place “when the time is right,” she said at Sunday’s press conference), von der Leyen has the benefit of controlling the EU’s purse strings and being in the driver’s seat for the negotiation of its massive multi-annual budget.
Hard to ignore: That makes her unavoidable for national leaders who need EU funds, but much less so for foreign rulers who are doing their best to avoid dealing with the bloc’s institutions at all (wink, wink, Trump). The same can’t be said for top diplomat Kaja Kallas and Council President António Costa, who are still figuring out how to make an impact.
What a difference 100 days make: In this new context, some of von der Leyen’s promises from the middle of last year (youth dialogues, for example) almost seem quaint. Yet the Commission is doggedly completing its checklist ahead of the 100-day mark. (That’s today, if you include the day this College took office.)
VDL’s pledges, graded: POLITICO’s newsroom went over von der Leyen’s first-100-day promises with a fine-toothed comb to determine how well, or poorly, they’ve been kept. The College scores highest on things like the Clean Industrial Deal, the defense white paper and Youth Policy Dialogues (all 4 out of 5) and lowest on its vision for agriculture and food (2 out of 5). All the scores here.
DEFENSE, DEFENSE, DEFENSE: Speaking of the defense white paper: While von der Leyen promised to deliver it on March 19, events have gotten ahead of the Commission’s plans, with leaders signing off on an €800 billion ramp-up of defense during their Council gathering in Brussels last Thursday.
Eurobonds opening: Answering questions from reporters, von der Leyen said “nothing” was off the table when it comes to security, including defense eurobonds, adding that this was a decision for member countries.
Buy European +1: She also cast a vote in favor of “Buy European” — the idea that Europe should spend more defense dosh on products made inside its borders, versus other regions (most purchases are currently made in the U.S.). Of the €800 billion, “if 80 percent goes abroad, it’s good for other regions but not for the European Union,” von der Leyen said. “We have to think about what includes Europe,” she added, mentioning Norway and the U.K. as other possible beneficiaries.
Speaking of buying European: The EU is under pressure to step up its tech game and wean itself off a heavy reliance on U.S. digital infrastructure and services, Pieter Haeck reports.
ALSO LOOK OUT FOR … The EU’s new “returns directive” — a legal primer on how EU states can more easily deport migrants who’ve yet to receive asylum in the bloc — will be presented on Tuesday. It’s expected to define rights and obligations for migrants who have exhausted legal options to stay in the EU and clarify rules for deporting them to third countries, per our report from late last year.
IS THE U.S. STILL OUR FRIEND? During the same press conference on Sunday, von der Leyen was pressed repeatedly by reporters on whether she thinks the U.S. can still be considered Europe’s ally. Her answer was an emphatic “yes,” but her speech also noted a state of affairs in which “everything is transactional” and even “ironclad commitments” are no longer respected.
Folks like us: Listing “like-minded countries,” she named Canada, Norway, the U.K. … but not the U.S.
Cold wind: Soon after she finished speaking, NBC News reported that Trump may not resume aid to Ukraine even if Kyiv signs a minerals deal with Washington. The U.S. president reportedly wants Ukraine to make concessions to Russia — a prospect that would put Europe in a bind (more on this below).
Indeed, Europe is walking a tightrope between its attachment to the U.S. and Trump’s embrace of Russia. Even if the EU wants to wean itself off American weapons, the process is likely to take years. Until it’s ready to walk on its own two feet, Brussels needs to tread carefully with Washington.
SIKORSKI VS. MUSK AND RUBIO: Transatlantic relations just hit another low point. Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski dared to correct Elon Musk’s assertion that his Starlink satellite internet system was the “backbone” of Ukraine’s army, pointing out that Poland pays €50 million per year to provide Starlink to Ukraine.
DOGE, State pile-on: That prompted U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio to accuse Sikorski (whose country is perhaps Washington’s most stalwart ally in the entire EU) of “just making things up.” Then Musk piled on, telling Sikorski to “be quiet, small man” — all of it, naturally, in public view on X.
Protesting too much? Some noted that Rubio and Musk reportedly clashed in the Cabinet Room, according to this piece by the New York Times. The action on X looked a lot like an attempt to stifle any talk of Cabinet infighting.
Ever the diplomat, Sikorski replied to Rubio’s tweet with one of his own. “Thank you, Marco, for confirming that the brave soldiers of Ukraine can count on the vital internet service provided jointly by 🇺🇸 and🇵🇱. Together, Europe and the United States can help 🇺🇦 to achieve a just peace,” he wrote.
How dare you: Reactions in Europe were furious, with Sikorski’s supporters posting images of a younger Radosław dressed in army gear from the days he worked as a war correspondent in Afghanistan in the 1980s, asking: Does this look like a small man? Write-up here.
SPACEX ALTERNATIVE? Meanwhile, Francesca Micheletti and Joshua Posaner report that Airbus, Leonardo and Thales Alenia Space want to join up to create a European competitor to Musk’s SpaceX.
FRANCE PLEDGES €195M FROM FROZEN ASSETS: French Armed Forces Minister Minister Sébastien Lecornu announced that Paris would deliver the package thanks to interest gained from Russia’s frozen assets in Europe. Reuters has the story.
ECB update: With pressure mounting to seize Russian assets, resistance to the move within the European Central Bank is wavering, reports Ben Munster.
PARLIAMENT WANTS EU DEFENSE TO BE AUTONOMOUS FROM NATO: While stressing that EU-NATO coordination should continue, the European Parliament will call “for the development of a fully capable European Pillar of NATO able to act autonomously whenever needed,” according to the draft compromise resolution on European defense agreed between the house’s leading political factions, which will be passed on Wednesday, Max Griera writes in to report.
A step toward an EU military: In its resolution, the Parliament “deplores” the reluctance of EU countries to have an ambitious plan for their armed forces to cooperate at EU level, while proposing to create an “EU crisis response air fleet” comprising military transport aircraft “held at European level and made available to Member States for EU deployments, transport of equipment or troops,” as a first step toward military integration.
What about the money: With von der Leyen having promised €150 billion in loans for EU countries and the potential mobilization of €800 billion in the coming years, the Parliament will propose that member countries explore the idea of an European defense bond system “to finance large-scale military investments upfront,” which would see the EU take on debt to transfer money to countries. The Parliament also wants the Commission to reallocate the unused funds from the Covid-19 pandemic recovery fund to defense purposes.
MEANWHILE, IN SAUDI ARABIA: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is due in Saudi Arabia today to meet with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman ahead of talks between top American and Ukrainian officials in Jeddah on Tuesday. A senior U.S. State Department official told the BBC that the Trump administration believes Kyiv is “ready to move forward” on the U.S. demand for a cease-fire with Russia.
Overnight … Asked whether the U.S. would consider lifting restrictions on intelligence sharing with Ukraine, Trump said: “We just about have,” adding, “We’re going to make a lot of progress, I believe, this week.”
The latest from the battlefield: Moscow’s forces moved through a gas pipeline to surprise Kyiv’s troops who have been holding territory in Russia’s Kursk region.
Now read this: Trump has pushed Kyiv into its most perilous time since Russia’s all-out invasion began, writes Jamie Dettmer this morning.
CZECH MATES: After fundraising enough cash to buy a €3 million Black Hawk helicopter for Ukraine (in a campaign dubbed “Gift for Putin”), the Czechs are now crowdfunding for artillery ammunition for the country. H/t Jacopo Barigazzi.
SWEDEN WANTS FULL STEAM AHEAD ON ENLARGEMENT: Stockholm is beating the drum on expanding the EU, with its Europe Minister Jessica Rosencrantz visiting Albania and Montenegro this week.
New momentum: The geopolitical landscape (yep, that’s code for Trump again) is fueling “new momentum” for enlargement, Rosencrantz said. “It’s also about the EU making sure that we really see the geopolitical interest for the EU to be present in more countries. If we are not there, if we do not open our door, someone else will.”
ICYMI: Von der Leyen said she anticipates Ukraine becoming a member of the European Union before 2030, while Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos has called for opening so-called clusters on Ukraine’s admission during the first half of 2025.
Ukraine isn’t feeling the momentum. In his speech to EU leaders last week, President Zelenskyy lamented what he called the “blocking” of Ukraine’s accession process (he’s looking at you, Hungary). But Rosencrantz was optimistic. “Twenty-six countries are very clear. I really find a great support among member states. There can be no alternative. It’s not just the first cluster but all clusters this year,” she said.
Budapest isn’t in charge: “Hungary cannot set the pace” for enlargement, Rosencrantz added. “We need to find a better system to have 27 countries agree every time you open a cluster … that makes for 100-150 decisions per country.”
DEFENSE MISFIRE: The art for the European Commission’s “ReArm Europe” initiative is garnering some serious lols online. Meme veterans were quick to point out that the logo, featuring a circle of stars with three bands to either side, can be seen as a certain unmentionable part of the human anatomy.
Meme police: According to the MEP Assistant account, known for its faithful work trying to turn EU dynamics into memes, the Commission showcased its ignorance of (pretty basic) internet culture with the design chosen to illustrate its fancy new defense plan. Innocent error or masterful trolling? You decide.
CARNEY IN CANADA: Former U.K. and Canada central bank boss Mark Carney won the race to succeed Justin Trudeau as leader of Canada’s ruling Liberal Party and prime minister. In his acceptance speech, Carney vowed to resist Trump’s tariff threats, saying: “America is not Canada. And Canada never, ever, will be part of America in any way, shape or form.” POLITICO has the story.
HAPPENING TUESDAY — GREENLAND VOTES: Greenlanders will cast their ballots on Tuesday in an election that could prove to be one of the most consequential in the Arctic island’s history. Seb Starcevic and Koen Verhelst set out the stakes.
MIDDLE EAST LATEST — ISRAEL CUTS ELECTRICITY TO GAZA: Israel has cut off electricity to the Gaza Strip, Israeli Energy Minister Eli Cohen said Sunday. The move comes after Israel halted all humanitarian aid deliveries to Gaza last week, pushing the militant group Hamas to extend a U.S.-proposed cease-fire deal. Csongor Körömi has the full story.
— Employment, Social Policy, Health and Consumers Affairs Council. Arrivals and doorsteps at 9 a.m. …press conference at 2:45 p.m. Watch.
— European Parliament plenary session starts in Strasbourg at 5 p.m. … Debate on the first Omnibus proposals at 6:30 p.m. … Full agenda. Watch.
— Eurogroup meeting. Press conference with Eurogroup President Paschal Donohoe, Managing Director of the European Stability Mechanism Pierre Gramegna and Economy Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis at 7 p.m. Watch.
— NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte will visit Sarajevo, Bosnia and
Herzegovina. Joint press statements by Rutte with representatives of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina at 1 p.m. … speech at the University of Sarajevo at 2:45 p.m. Watch.
— European Parliament President Roberta Metsola meets with Commission President Ursula von der Leyen at 4:15 p.m.
— EU ambassadors meet in Coreper II at 9:30 a.m.
— Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič receives Korean Trade Minister Inkyo Cheong and co-chairs the 12th EU-Korea Trade Committee.
WEATHER: High 16C, sunny intervals.
THE STRIKES OF MARCH: Brace yourself for another wave of strikes this month. Flemish public transport company De Lijn will be on strike this Wednesday, with a modified schedule … there’s a railway strike on March 17 … and a nationwide strike on March 31.
TRAIN FUNDRAISER: Britain’s Virgin Group aims to raise €834 million to launch a train service that could compete with Eurostar on the routes serving London, Paris and Brussels, the company announced over the weekend. The plan is to launch the service in 2029. “The cross-Channel route is ripe for change and would benefit from competition,” a spokesperson told Reuters.
WOMEN’S MARCH BOOS: Equality Commissioner Hadja Lahbib, along with Belgian Interior Minister Bernard Quintin and other members of the French-speaking liberal party MR, left a women’s rights march in Brussels on Saturday after being booed and heckled as the demonstration turned into an anti-government protest. Around 10,000 people were present.
BALKAN FESTIVAL CANCELED: The Balkan Trafik Festival, which celebrates Balkan art and culture annually in Brussels, won’t be held this year for the first time in two decades. “I have been unable to bring together all the necessary pieces to make our festival happen,” the organizer said on Facebook, vowing the festival would return in 2026.
YPRES, THE BEST PLACE ON EARTH (OR AT LEAST IN BELGIUM): The town of Ypres, in West Flanders, was ranked by guests of Booking.com as the “most welcoming destination in the country.” The city is known for its World War I history, as well as its annual “cat parade” in May.
BIRTHDAYS: MEPs Özlem Demirel; former European Commissioner Stella Kyriakides; former MEPs Pervenche Berès, Benoît Lutgen and Anna Maria Corazza Bildt; POLITICO’s Sonia Romano; former Canadian Prime Minister Kim Campbell; Britain’s Prince Edward.
THANKS TO: Playbook editor Alex Spence, reporter Ketrin Jochecová and producer Dean Southwell.
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